Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
