A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
